Stripping away the betting b******t

Hello and welcome to The Naked Punter. I aim to update this website on a regular basis with all my latest bets and thoughts of what is happening in the world of betting.

If you have any betting related service or product and would like me to review it please contact at my email address.

Had a very nice day yesterday with about 40 points profit.  Were pretty unlucky as had two big priced seconds at 33/1.

Over the week of posting theses tips I think probably about level maybe a bit up.  I was going to post them for only a week but in attempt to get us in to profit I will post them for one last time.  Good luck!

Had a winner yesterday at around 10/1 but was still down for the day.  Still time to get losses back and today’s selections are posted below:

A bit for pushed for time today but here are the selections below.

Had a few winners yesteday but was down overall.  Only two selections for today.

Had a few winners yesterday but was down a few points.

Will update the results later.  Today’s selections are below. There are a LOT of runners today!

A bit unlucky yesterday with a 2nd and a 3rd.  The second horse was beaten in a photograph.

But not to worry as only 2 points down for the week and can easily get that back in profit.  Have a lot of runners today which are listed below.

Had a better day yesterday with a couple of winners.

So after the first two days should be showing a slight profit.  There isn’t many runners today and I’ve listed them below.

Didn’t have a winner yesterday.

But these  selections do have some long losing runs as a lot of the horses are big prices.

But they should be judged over a longer period. Here is the selections for today:

14:25    Southwell   Trans Sonic (11.16 WON)
14:25    Southwell    Just Five (-1 lost)
14:25    Southwell    Hits Only Jude (-1 lost)
14:25    Southwell    Elusive Fame (NR)
14:25    Southwell    Flores Sea (-1 lost)
14:55    Southwell    La Zamora (-1 lost)
15:30    Southwell   Tifoso (-1 lost)
16:10    Southwell    Reve De Nuit (-1 lost)
16:10    Southwell    Lang Shining (-1 lost)
16:10    Southwell    Veloso (7.00 WON)
16:20    Kelso    Rosie All Over (-1 lost)
16:20    Kelso    Reckless Venture (-1 lost)
16:45    Southwell    As Brave As You (-1 lost)

I have posted for a while as have been working on a few things.  Been testing a system for the last month pretty succesfully. It is a backing system.

It has a lot of filters that I won’t go in to a lot of details about.

There are more than a few filters most to do with the last run of the horses.

I will post the selections for the next week.

It is up to you wither you want to follow them.

But please don’t go mad on the stakes as the strike rate is only around 10-12% so there will be losing runs.

Here is the stats of the system below. The stats are to £1 bets and an estimated betfair sp.

The selections are actually also showing a good profit to bookmakers sp as well this year.

Here is a excel file with all the system selections below.

Excel file with 2010 selections profit and loss

Please feel free to download the free bot below if you wish to use it to put on the selections

FREE betting bot

Usually I  will post the selections by lunch time on the day of racing.

Selections for Tuesday 4th May

Time    Course    Race Card No    Horse 
14:40    Newcastle    10    Lava Steps (-1 lost)
15:10    Newcastle    7    Whatyouwoodwishfor (-1 lost)
16:10    Newcastle    5    Electric City (-1 lost)
16:40    Newcastle    2    Tislaam (-1 lost)
16:40    Newcastle    6    Tell Me A Story (-1 lost)
17:10    Newcastle    6    Grand Honour (NR)
17:10    Newcastle    10    Northgate Lodge (-1 lost)
18:20    Exeter        6    Sea Saffron (-1 lost)

I’ve had a look at the stats for the Grand National and comes up with some interesting things.

Ideally you are wanting horses that are 9 or 10 years old as this seems the perfect age to win the race.

Also you are looking for a horse that has had a run fairly recently and this seems to filter out other selections that don’t do well.

Here are the main filters below. There are a couple of other ones like pace but these are the main ones.

Grand National filters

9 and 10 year olds
Last run < 43 days
Last run:  Cheltenham, Newcastle or Uttoxeter

If you applied the above filters over the last 5 years you would be nearly 300 points in profit to betfair prices and picked the winner 3 times.

Results for the last 5 years with above filters

Grand National selections

16:15    Mon Mome
16:15    Niche Market
16:15    Beat The Boys

Would do them all each way as big prices.