Stripping away the betting b******t

I have posted for a while as have been working on a few things.  Been testing a system for the last month pretty succesfully. It is a backing system.

It has a lot of filters that I won’t go in to a lot of details about.

There are more than a few filters most to do with the last run of the horses.

I will post the selections for the next week.

It is up to you wither you want to follow them.

But please don’t go mad on the stakes as the strike rate is only around 10-12% so there will be losing runs.

Here is the stats of the system below. The stats are to £1 bets and an estimated betfair sp.

The selections are actually also showing a good profit to bookmakers sp as well this year.

Here is a excel file with all the system selections below.

Excel file with 2010 selections profit and loss

Please feel free to download the free bot below if you wish to use it to put on the selections

FREE betting bot

Usually I  will post the selections by lunch time on the day of racing.

Selections for Tuesday 4th May

Time    Course    Race Card No    Horse 
14:40    Newcastle    10    Lava Steps (-1 lost)
15:10    Newcastle    7    Whatyouwoodwishfor (-1 lost)
16:10    Newcastle    5    Electric City (-1 lost)
16:40    Newcastle    2    Tislaam (-1 lost)
16:40    Newcastle    6    Tell Me A Story (-1 lost)
17:10    Newcastle    6    Grand Honour (NR)
17:10    Newcastle    10    Northgate Lodge (-1 lost)
18:20    Exeter        6    Sea Saffron (-1 lost)

I’ve had a look at the stats for the Grand National and comes up with some interesting things.

Ideally you are wanting horses that are 9 or 10 years old as this seems the perfect age to win the race.

Also you are looking for a horse that has had a run fairly recently and this seems to filter out other selections that don’t do well.

Here are the main filters below. There are a couple of other ones like pace but these are the main ones.

Grand National filters

9 and 10 year olds
Last run < 43 days
Last run:  Cheltenham, Newcastle or Uttoxeter

If you applied the above filters over the last 5 years you would be nearly 300 points in profit to betfair prices and picked the winner 3 times.

Results for the last 5 years with above filters

Grand National selections

16:15    Mon Mome
16:15    Niche Market
16:15    Beat The Boys

Would do them all each way as big prices.

Had three winners yesterday from the system I posted.  But because of low prices made a slight loss on the day. But nothing too bad at only around 1 point loss.

Too late to post anything for the racing today so I thought I would post a golf bet.

It is for the Shell Houston Open which has started already.

Fancy Fred Couples to have a good competition. He is priced at around 40/1 so worth a small interest e/w.

Made a bit of a mess of the post yesterday and never checked the racing before posting. So as a result one of the meetings had been called off and one of the other races had only 2 runners.

So I will post the selections today again for today’s races.  Again back the fav and second fav in the races below.

2.40 Hereford

3.40 Hereford

4.40 Hereford

5.30 Kempton

No posted for a few days so I thought I would put up a free system today.  This is something that I have been following for a number of months now with a good bit of success.

Basically it is a dutching system with the first two in the market.  This system has a pretty high strike rate of over 70% and at the moment for me it is running at 75%.

The system is for non handicap races only. It doesn’t run at every course or every classification.  Below are some of the filters below.

Non handicap only

Bet 1st and 2nd fav

No bets are class A or H

No bets September

The qualifying races are below.  So bet the sportinglife 1st and 2nd favourite in these races.

2.00 Fontwell  (fav and 2nd fav)

2.30 Fontwell (fav and 2nd fav)

3.50 Newcastle (fav and 2nd fav)

Here is the results below for the above system.

Not posted since Saturday where had a bet at Uttoxeter.  Never ran very well but can’t win them all.

Not got any strong fancies today but will point out some stats at Haydock where there is a card today.

I won’t go throught all the filters but the main ones are below.

Age > 2

Weight rank <3

Class >E

There filters have produced the selections below.

14:40    Sir Tantallus Hawk
14:40    Thumbs Up
15:15    Frankie Anson
15:15    Leac An Scail
15:15    Marcus
15:50    Jass
15:50    Brooklyn Brownie
16:25    Auroras Encore
16:25    Soft Spoken Guy

The filters above have produced the results below over the last few years. Just for Haydock.

Have had a look at midlands national today – the 3.15 race at Uttoxeter.

Have looked at it from a number of angles and tried to narrow the field down.

The first thing is 7-9 year olds seem to be correct age for this race.

Also preference is given to horses that are not near the top of the handicap.

There is another of other filters I added but here are the main ones below.

Age 7,8 or 9
Handicap rank greater than 7

With these filter it gave me the horses below.

Gypsy George
Mark The Book
Ballydub
Lorum Leader
Sherwoods Folly

But I wanted to narrow it down further and I added in a pace filter.  So after doing that is gave me Lorum Leader.

That is the only horse that fitted the profile.

So today’s selection.

Lorum Leader  3.15 Uttoxeter  (each way)

Here below is how the horses that have fitted the above profile have got on over the last few years.

Shows good returns.

Very nice final day of the festival.  The system we had been following produced a place horse at a big brice. I think the final betfair sp was around 29/1.

It was as big as 40s for a place at some points before the race.

Also the Gold Cup tip Imperial Commander also won which was a bonus.

So overall not including Imperial Commander the final totals are below.

Profit and loss

Tuesday -4 points

Wednesday -10 points

Thursday + 23 points

Friday + 28 points

TOTAL PROFIT 37 POINTS

I will have a look in shortly at today’s racing to see if anything stands out and post probably around 1.30 or 2 o’clock.

Final day of Cheltenham Festival today with the feature race the Gold Cup.

First things first with the system we have been following.

Surprisingly there is only one runner today.  It is a big outsider so wouldn’t go mad on it but is worth small interest each way.

The selection is below.

4.00  Reach for the top.  (each way)

Cheltenham Gold Cup

I have went through the stats for the Gold Cup for the last 12 years and found a couple of interesting things.

First of all only one 10 year old has won.  So that doesn’t go well for the market leaders today who are both 10.

So if we look past Denman and Kauto Star and look for younger horses.  Have a look at how the winners by age below.

12 year table (1997-2009)

As you can see 7, 8 and 9 have the best records.

In fact you would have made a level stakes profit just backing 9 year olds in the Gold Cup over the 12 years.

So if we just look at 9 year olds there are two Imperial Commander and outsider Cerium.

Personally I would say Imperial commander could be worth an interest.

The other one going to consider is Tricky Trickster.  It comes within the age range 7 and 9.

Interestingly it is also trained by Paul Nicholls who trains the favourite and second favourite.  Could this be his next star now Denman and Kauto are getting on in age?

Gold Cup Selections

Imperial Commander

Tricky trickster

Just a quick update on how the selections have performed so far this week.

Roughly about 9 points up for Cheltenham. That is betting a point each way on all the selections so far.

Buena Vista was a nice winner and paid 22/1 on betfair.

A bit unlucky as Faasal just failed to get up on the line which would have been a very nice winner. Still we took the place money which was a small consolation.

Profit and loss

Tuesday -4 points
Wednesday -10 points
Thursday + 23 points

TOTAL PROFIT 9 POINTS

So a small profit going in to the last day. So worst case scenario we shouldn’t end up much down if we have a bad day Friday.

Hopefully will get a winner or two to finish off the week.